Enrollment Worksession _ 10.21.2025 (1).pdf (8,633 KB)

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Board of Education | October 21, 2025

Long Range Planning Update

Deﬁning the Problem & Deﬁning Goals ●

Maintain and improve learning outcomes for all students

●

Distribute students so all schools have the right level of students/resources to maintain high-quality learning experiences to improve outcomes for all students

●

Stabilize overall enrollment by retaining current students and attracting new students to the district

●

Ongoing ﬁscal challenges will require maximizing all eﬃciencies

BVSD Accredited with Distinction for 2nd year in a row

Accredited with Distinction

Performance Frameworks

Opportunity

Growth

Achievement

If we increase meaningful opportunities and provide equitable access for all students, then we will accelerate student growth which will improve achievement and reduce disparities.

Response to Date

Declining Enrollment Process Overview 2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26 (Aug.-Oct.)

LRAC

Studied elementary level enrollment history and projections and recommended Board actions and metrics for elementary schools

● Received updates on enrollment and the work of the District ● Studied middle level enrollment status ● Attended Heatherwood Community Engagement meetings

● Middle level & PK-8 enrollment discussions ● Received updates re: Heatherwood process ● Received Annual Enrollment update ● Previewed Annual Trend Report ● Received attendance boundary review update ● Provided updates to Board

● Middle level & PK-8 enrollment discussion (Sept.) ● Update to the Board (Oct.)

BVSD

● At the direction of the Board, created LRAC and supported the work of the group.

● Supported Heatherwood Community Engagement process ● Held ﬁrst Place to be Showcase ● Conducted parent enrollment survey

● Attendance boundary review process ● Place to Be Showcase

● Received regular updates

Board

● Held Place to Be Showcase ● Supported development of Heatherwood focus program ● Established new commuter enrollment preference ● Created Enrollment Dashboard

● Received committee recommendations

● Updated policies ● Received enrollment updates,

Board

including Annual Trend Report

Board ● Adopted new attendance boundaries ● Long range planning work session

● Dashboard work session

● ● ● ●

LRAC and Heatherwood updates Annual Enrollment update Annual Trend Report Attendance boundary review

Elementary Student Experience 7

Elementary School Programmatic Impacts Three Round (~450) (3 classes per grade level)

Grade 1

Two Round (~300)

One Round (~150)

Multi Grade

(2 classes per grade level)

(1 class per grade level)

(<1 class per grade level)

Grade 1

● ABC Specials rotation

● Traveling teachers

● Instrumental music

● Scheduling complexity & limitations

● Ideal for programming ● Dedicated counselor, Specials teachers & Special Education teachers

● Programming limitations

● Limited teacher collaboration ● Lack of ﬂexibility to shift students

Grade 2

● Yearly change ● Complex planning for teachers

● More programming limitations 8

Elementary Level Enrollment Data 9

5-year K-12* Enrollment Projections 27,132

26,891

26,705

26,516

26,194

25,901

Prelim. 2025 Enrollment Total Enrollment General Fund

*Preschool not included due to

the diﬃculty to assess demand and due to it’s disconnect with school attendance areas.

BVSD Elementary Building Capacity ●

BVSD has the capacity to serve 14,585 K-5 students in our non-charter schools.

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We currently serve 9,952 (SY 24-25) K-5 non-charter students.

●

The utilization rate is 68% with 4,633 open seats (SY 2024-25).

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Projected to go to 9,431, or 65% in 5-years with 5,154 open seats.

Elementary Attendance Area Regions BOULDER

● ● ● ● ● ●

BCSIS/High Peaks Bear Creek Columbine C. Montessori Creekside Crest View

● Douglass ●● Foothill Eisenhower ●● Gold Hill Flatirons ●● Foothill Heatherwood ● Gold Hill ● Heatherwood

● ● ● ● ●

Horizons K-5 Jamestown Mesa University Hill Whittier

LOUISVILLE/ SUPERIOR

● Coal Creek ● Eldorado K-5 ● Fireside

● Louisville Elementary ● Monarch K-5 ● Superior

LAFAYETTE/ ERIE

● Alicia Sanchez ● Escuela Bilingüe Pioneer ● Lafayette Elementary

● Meadowlark K-5 ● Ryan ● Peak to Peak K-5

BROOMFIELD

● Aspen Creek K-5 ● Birch

Total Capacity: 7,102 Resident Students: 4,111 Enrolled Students: 4,636 Open Seats: 2,466

Utilization 2024/2029*: 65%/59% Total Capacity: 3,039 Resident Students: 1,995 Enrolled Students: 2,033 Open Seats: 1,006

Utilization 2024/2029*: 67%/61% Total Capacity: 2,877 Resident Students: 2,483 Enrolled Students: 2,475 Open Seats: 402

Utilization 2024/2029*: 86%/89%

● Emerald ● Kohl

Total Capacity: 1,788 Resident Students: 1,165 Enrolled Students: 1,320 Open Seats: 468

Utilization 2024/2029*: 74%/73%

Elementary Enrollment Change by Region 2,466 open seats

1,006 open seats

Capacity Preliminary Enrollment

402 open seats

468 open seats

Enrollment Metrics 5-yr projections Enrollment Advisory Status <=2 rounds and <=60% of capacity Community Engagement Status <=1.5 rounds and <=50% of capacity SY 2024 - Actual

SY 2025 - Projected

Advisory: 8 Engagement: 1

SY 2026 - Projected SY 2027 - Projected Advisory: 8 Engagement: 1

Advisory: 10 Engagement: 1

SY 2028 - Projected SY 2029 - Projected Advisory: 8 Engagement: 2

Advisory: 8 Engagement: 3

Boulder Region

Attendance Areas Elementary (K-5) Total Capacity: 7,102 Resident Students: 4,111 Enrolled Students: 4,636 Utilization: 65%

Elementary Attendance Area Region - Boulder

* Does not include capacity for schools not subject to LRAC criteria (Horizons, Gold Hill, and Jamestown)

Regional Enrollment Proﬁle North Boulder

South Boulder

Boulder Region

Attendance Area Student Composition 2024-25 2 round school Attending neighborhood school Attending a different school

Takeaways ● Resident students cannot support 2 rounds at Flatirons, Douglass and Mesa ● Heatherwood and Whittier at 2 rounds Note: Chart does not reﬂect new 2026-27 attendance area boundaries.

● Creekside, Columbine, and Crest View resident-attending near or below 50%

Boulder Region

School Enrollment Composition 2024-25

Projected 2029 2 round school Attending neighborhood school OE-In from different school Out of District enrollment

Takeaways ● 10 schools expected to continue to decline ● 6 schools currently enrolled above 2 rounds ● Only 3 schools expected to be above 2 rounds in 2029

Louisville-Superior Region 21

Louisville/Superior

Attendance Areas Elementary (K-5) Total Capacity: 3,039 Resident Students: 1,995 Enrolled Students: 2,033 Utilization 2024: 67% Utilization 2029 (projected): 61%

Elementary Attendance Area Region - Louisville/Superior

Regional Enrollment & Attendance Area Proﬁle Louisville-Superior

Louisville/Superior

Elementary Attendance Area Student Composition 2024-25 2 round school Attending neighborhood school Attending a different school

Takeaways ● Only Coal Creek, LES, and Superior El. above 2 rounds w/ resident students ● Fireside resident students currently just at 2 rounds ● Neither Monarch nor Eldorado resident students could support a 2 round school alone

Louisville/Superior

Elementary School Enrollment Composition 2024-25

Projected 2029 2 round school Attending neighborhood school OE-In from different school Out of District enrollment

Takeaways ● Fireside, LES, and Superior El. enroll well above 2 rounds ● Coal Creek, Eldorado, and Monarch enroll under 2 rounds ● Monarch resident-attending population low and reliant on OE ● Fireside also dependant on OE ● Enrollment declines expected at 4 of 6 schools

Lafayette-Erie Region 27

Lafayette/Erie

Elementary Attendance Areas

Elementary (K-5) Total Capacity: 2,877 Resident Students: 2,483 Enrolled Students: 2,475 Utilization 2024: 86% Utilization 2029 (projected): 89%

Elementary Attendance Area Region - Lafayette/Erie

* Does not include capacity for schools not subject to LRAC criteria (Peak to Peak)

Regional Enrollment & Attendance Area Proﬁle Lafayette-Erie

Lafayette/Erie

Attendance Area Student Composition 2024-25 2 round school Attending neighborhood school Attending a different school

Takeaways ● Lafayette-Erie has enough resident students to support more than 2 rounds. ● Schools generally have a lower resident attending rate than other areas, except Meadowlark. ● Population also supports Peak to Peak (450) and Pioneer (400).

Lafayette/Erie

School Enrollment Composition 2024-25

(582)

Projected 2029 2 round school Attending neighborhood school OE-In from different school Out of District enrollment

Broomﬁeld Region 33

Broomﬁeld

Elementary Attendance Areas

Elementary (K-5) Total Capacity: 1,788 Resident Students: 1,165 Enrolled Students: 1,320 Utilization 2024: 74% Utilization 2029 (projected): 73%

Elementary Attendance Area Region - Broomﬁeld

1.5

Regional Enrollment & Attendance Area Proﬁle Broomﬁeld

Broomﬁeld

Elementary Attendance Area Student Composition 2024-25

2 round school Attending neighborhood school Attending a different school

Takeaways ● 2 of 4 schools below 2

rounds with resident students. ● Aspen Creek and Emerald resident students only slightly over 2 rounds

Broomﬁeld

Elementary School Enrollment Composition 2024-25 Projected 2029 2 round school Attending neighborhood school OE-In from different school Out of District enrollment

Takeaways ● 2 of 4 schools enrolled below 2 rounds. ● Aspen Creek and Emerald expecting some growth, primarily from open enrollment. ● Birch and Kohl expecting continued decline.

Summary ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENT TRENDS ●

Boulder Continued enrollment declines, 10 of 14 (71%) schools projected to be at or below 2 rounds in 2029

●

Louisville-Superior Continued enrollment declines, 3 of 6 (50%) schools projected to be at or below 2 rounds

●

Lafayette-Erie Slow enrollment growth, no schools projected to be at or below 2 rounds

●

Broomﬁeld Continued enrollment declines, 2 of 4 (50%) schools projected to be at or below 2 rounds

Middle School Enrollment Data 40

Middle Level Enrollment Change by Region 1,262 open seats

448 open seats

351 open seats

469 open seats

Capacity Preliminary Enrollment

Middle Level 5-Year Projections

BVSD Middle Level Building Capacity ●

BVSD has the capacity to serve 8,145 6-8 students in our non-charter schools.

●

We currently serve 5,538 (SY 24-25) 6-8 non-charter students.

●

The utilization rate is 68% with 2,607 open seats (SY 2024-25).

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Projected to go to 5,133, or 63% in 5-years with 3,012 open seats.

Options

Options for Discussion

Meets Goals?

Allow schools to stay “small”

✖ Does not redistribute students/resources ✖ Does not generate additional enrollment ✖ Not ﬁscally eﬃcient

Introduce or expand focus programs

● Potential to redistribute students/resources ● Potential to attract additional out of district enrollment ● Potential to improve ﬁscal eﬃciency

Grade reconﬁguration, e.g. K-2 & 3-5 or convert K-8s to elementary and middle

✓ Redistributes students ● Potential to redistribute resources ● Impact on ﬁscal eﬃciency is uncertain; options are fundamentally different

Relocate focus programs

✓ Redistributes students ● Potential to attract additional out of district enrollment and/or generate additional resources for a school (if co-located) ● Potential to improve ﬁscal eﬃciency

Consolidate two or more schools into one building (existing or new)

✓ Redistributes/consolidates students and generates more resources for the receiving school ✓ New building has the potential to retain and attract students ✓ Improves ﬁscal eﬃciency

Close one or more schools and distribute students to multiple schools

✓ Redistributes/consolidates students and generates more resources for the receiving school ✖ Does not generate additional enrollment ✓ Improves ﬁscal eﬃciency

Risk and Beneﬁts of Next Steps Pace: How Fast Do We Move?

Scope: How Wide Do We Go?

Discussion