Annual Enrollment Trend Report _ February 2026.pdf (5,132 KB)

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Board of Education | February 10, 2026

Long Range Advisory Committee Update & Annual Enrollment Trend Report

Declining Enrollment Process Overview 2022-23

2023-24

2024-25

2025-26 (Aug.-Jan.)

LRAC

Studied elementary level enrollment history and projections and recommended Board actions and metrics for elementary schools

● Received updates on enrollment and the work of the District ● Studied middle level enrollment status ● Attended Heatherwood Community Engagement meetings

● Middle level & PK-8 enrollment discussions ● Received updates re: Heatherwood process ● Received Annual Enrollment update ● Previewed Annual Trend Report ● Received attendance boundary review update ● Provided Board updates

● Middle level & PK-8 enrollment discussion (Sept.) ● Provided update to the Board (Oct.) ● Reviewed Oct. 21 work session and provided input about community engagement process

BVSD

● At the direction of the Board, created LRAC and supported the work of the group.

● Heatherwood Community Engagement process ● First Place to be Showcase ● Parent enrollment survey

● Place to Be Showcase ● Supported development of Heatherwood focus program ● New commuter enrollment preference ● Enrollment Dashboard

● Attendance boundary review process ● Place to Be Showcase

Board ● Received regular updates

● Received LRAC recommendations

Board ● Policy updates ● Received enrollment updates,

including Annual Trend Report

Board ● Dashboard work session

● ● ● ●

LRAC and Heatherwood updates Annual Enrollment update Annual Trend Report Attendance boundary review

Board ● ● ● ●

Adopted new attendance boundaries Long range planning work session Enrollment update for 2025-26 Community engagement plan presentation

LRAC Update September 2025 ●

Middle / PK-8 school discussion

October 2025 ●

Update to Board

November 2025 ● ● ●

Reviewed attendance boundary adjustments Reviewed Oct. 21 work session Initial discussion of community engagement process

January 2026 ● ●

Annual enrollment update Community engagement process discussion

Annual Enrollment Trend Report

Number of Students

Enrollment Trends 2015-2025

● Continued overall decline

of -1.9% ● Decline steeper than

projected (-0.9%) ● Decrease in new,

multilingual speaking students Year

Overall Enrollment Projected to Decline Number of Students

26,607

26,218

25,876

25,529

25,220

24,937

Projected loss of 1,670 students (1,706 General Fund) * Preschool not included due to the diﬃculty to assess demand and due to its disconnect with school attendance areas.

6 6

Projection Methodology ●

Cohort survival method is the principal technique (standard for most school districts).

●

Looks at the rate each cohort (or class) progresses to the next level, then applies past averages to current enrollment.

●

BVSD modiﬁes to better account resident student trends and adds inputs for open enrollment ﬂow, new housing development, and birth rates.

Projection Assumptions ●

Open-enrollment ﬂows and net migration are relatively stable.

●

New housing is constructed at a similar rate as estimated in projection.

●

Ratio of births to subsequent kindergarteners is relatively stable.

●

Primarily based on past trends, but births, new housing, and open enrollment updates provide glimpses forward.

●

Any future events that depart from current trends will push projections in a different direction (COVID-19).

Enrollment Metrics 5-yr projections Enrollment Advisory Status <=2 rounds and <=60% of capacity Community Engagement Status <=1.5 rounds and <=50% of capacity SY 2025 - Actual

SY 2026 - Projected

Advisory: 7 Engagement: 2

Advisory: 7 Engagement: 3

SY 2027 - Projected SY 2028 - Projected Advisory: 8 Engagement: 4

Advisory: 7 Engagement: 5

SY 2029 - Projected SY 2030 - Projected Advisory: 6 Engagement: 5

Advisory: 6 Engagement: 5

Enrollment Trend Summary ●

Projections indicate that overall district enrollment will continue to decline over the next 5 years, with the elementary level driving the most facility and staﬃng impacts.

●

By 2030, BVSD is projected to have 14 schools at two classes per grade level or below, with two schools projected to be just above two classes per grade level.

●

Of those schools, seven are projected to be at 1.5 classes per grade level or below, which could necessitate mixed-grade classrooms.

Community Engagement Overall Process 2026 Phase 1: Preparation (January-February 2026) ● Engage principals and teachers ● Orientation sessions with Board and Superintendent advisory committees ● Begin to engage with municipalities Phase 2: Build understanding of the problem and collect input (March - May 2026) ● Regional community group meetings and stakeholder speciﬁc sessions

Phase 1

JAN

Preparation

FEB MAR

Phase 2

Build understanding & collect input

APR

Phase 3: Develop school adjustment options (June - August 2026) ● Present summary of community engagement to Board (June) ● Staff to develop facility planning options (June-August)

MAY Phase 3

JUN

Present engagement outcomes to Board (June)

JUL

Develop school adjustment options (June-August)

AUG

Community Engagement Overall Process (continued) Phase 4: Present school adjustment options to the Board (August 2026) ● Board’s opportunity to discuss options ● Opportunity for community input during public comment Phase 5: Present ﬁnal plan for study to the Board (September 2026) ● This will include updated attendance boundaries, open enrollment preferences, analysis of facility improvements required (if any), etc. ● Opportunity for community input during public comment Phase 6: Present ﬁnal plan for action to the Board (October 2026) ● Necessary for BVSD open enrollment timeline Nov. 1 - early January 2027

2026-2027 AUG 2026

Phase 4

SEP 2026

Phase 5

OCT 2026

Phase 6

NOV 2026

Phase 7

AUG 2027

New school conﬁgurations in place

Phase 7: Student / Staff Transition Planning & Support (Nov. 2026 - Aug. 2027) ● Enrollment specialists to provide direct support to impacted families throughout the enrollment process ● Support impacted staff and families with transition ● Plan for implementation ● Facility real estate process if needed

Present school adjustment options to the Board Present ﬁnal plan for study to the Board (second mtg. in Sept.) Present ﬁnal plan for action to the Board

Transition planning/support & Implementation

Questions 14